2014 Super Bowl Odds - Superbowl Line for XLVII
The Super Bowl XLVII odds and matchup has been set and the Baltimore Ravens will take on the San Francisco 49ers in New Orleans on February 3, 2014. Within seconds of the final gun sounding in Foxboro, MA (and in some cases before) sportsbooks all over the world posted their first Super Bowl betting odds and started taking bets. The opening price on the side and total varied from book to book but the line has now fallen in to a worldwide 'equilibrium' as betting action moved the numbers.
LINE SETTLES AT -4 WORLDWIDE:
Currently, the San Francisco 49ers are -4 point favorites at just about every sportsbook in Nevada, Europe and 'offshore'. The total on the game is 47.5 or 48 depending on the book with a few rogue 48.5 numbers out there as well. The initial line opened with higher Super Bowl odds, with some books offering the Niners at -5 or -5'. Baltimore money started to pour in-at one point the betting percentage figures on the Sports Options live odds screen showed 76% of bets on the underdog. San Francisco money soon appeared to balance the action and the current price of -4 looks fairly solid. To underscore what the betting marketplace is 'telling us' with the uniformity in the line the betting percentage figures on the game now shows it as essentially a 50/50 split with 51% of the action on Baltimore.
SUPER BOWL BETTING HAS CHANGED IN RECENT YEARS:
The opening Super Bowl betting line behavior has changed dramatically in recent years. Until the past decade once the opening numbers went up money would reflexively come for the favorite. The public has become 'sharper' in recent years but for a long time they liked to bet the Super Bowl favorite and usually gave little consideration to the dog. The 'sharp money' underdog players would have to time the market based on public enthusiasm for the favorite to get the best price. A 'sharp' player who liked the favorite would want to wait and see how far in the other direction the underdog betting pushed the line.
Things are different now-the Super Bowl is no longer dominated by the favorite year after year, the 'public' is more aware of betting concepts that were once the exclusive province of 'sharps' and the Internet has allowed not only more immediate betting but also has afforded sportsbooks the ability to see what is happening in betting shops around the world.
SUPER BOWL TOTAL BET DOWN:
The Super Bowl 47 total experienced a similar trajectory to the side. It opened fairly high (52.5) and was immediately met with a flood of 'Under' money. It went as low as 47 at some books but is now starting to move in the other direction. 48 is the most common total available now and according to the Sports Options betting percentages 59% of bets are coming in on the 'Over'.
THE MOST IMPORTANT LINE OF THE YEAR:
For a bookmaker in Nevada or 'offshore' there is no more important line they set every year than the Super Bowl side and total. These numbers are crucial on a variety of levels and there's a lot of pressure on linesmakers to get it right. It is the largest single betting event in Nevada sports books and second worldwide behind the Champions League Final in soccer. In 2010 NFL betting enthusiasts wagered $82.7 million on the Superbowl at Nevada sportsbooks which earned a $6.9 million profit on the day’s betting action. A bad Super Bowl line from the first books to open will be 'copied' by many other books and although betting action may quickly push the number into equilibrium it won't necessarily do all of the work. A 'bad line' could have repercussions throughout the industry especially if books get 'middled' or 'sided'--the worst possible outcome.